malice
Forum Replies Created
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Those birds have it out for yall or something.
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Yes
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Might consider also buying a salinity meter. I bought one on amazon for 25 bucks. I check salinity almost every time I fish unless I am to busy or just dont think about it. Usually those are the days when I know the buoy data so I dont really have to break out the meter. For about 3 years I have kept a meter with me and spot checked salinity so I can have an idea of whats going on with the trout. Trout chase that salinity gradient in the summer for sure when they are trying to go out to the passes and offshore to spawn.
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2 – I wouldnt fish it if its super muddy. I would run south away from the discharge at the diversion. You can check to see what the gate has been doing. I did just discover there is a USGS buoy at caenarvon and they report discharge (8000cfm max). Looks like it has been cranking near max a lot. I would go south to find cleaner water. If the water looks like crap in lery head south toward alligator pass and grand lake work that area over.
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1 – Devin might have more knowledge and I dont want to step on his toes but I will tell you how I do it. Firstly you will never be able to 100% figure out what the tide is doing to a T. I like to look at all the available buoy data in the area and try to gain an idea of what the tide did the 2 days before. The tide is either gonna be ahead or behind whatever happened on those days. So lets look at lake lery. I will go to USGS and find buoy data for the nearest buoys. In this case it is at 4 horse lake. The tide for today is predicted to be high at 1022am and low at 1003pm. Looking at actual data you see that the low tide was at 1015pm last night and high tide peaked at about 1015am. SO the predicted is pretty close. You can see the day before to see what direction time wise the tide is moving. It is in the process of going through a cycle right now so its a little harder to use this example but still works. I will do this right before I go, and I will also look at all the buoys near it (shell beach, ms river, wherever). As a general rule of thumb tides run about an hour behind for every 10 miles you go north in the marsh. Thats a very general rule and varies greatly by the shape of the marsh.
Part 2 of this first question is very very important. Windfinder isn’t worth shit on a shingle 4-5 days out. I mean the confidence I have in it that far out is very very low, and I will watch that forecast up until the last minute because it can change the tide, and how everything you do is done. Wind strength and direction are everything.
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I measured 65 from hopedale marina to middle of the islands using google maps (give or take a few miles for accuracy.) Measured 40 from the marina by the silver slipper in waveland. 35 miles from the public launch in bay st louis. Thats all kinda towards the middle of the island to get a baseline.
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Hey Jeff, I am no expert on those islands, as I have never been, but I have ran from hopedale marina way way out into the biloxi marsh both east and south. With that being said it is a very very long run from hopedale to the islands. It would likely be easier, and shorter to launch from slidell, waveland ms, la france, bay st louis and go south. Just a thought. I havent mapped it but I am assuming it would be way shorter of a boat ride.
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I think that its worth the risk personally but you have to be situationally aware. I like to reference the weather.gov page for forecast to read between the lines of TV forecasting. Looks like the current potential is for about 30%. In other words diurnally driven storms, but if you look at the marine forecast discussion you will see that whatever does form is going to be strong. Personally I would leave out super early and try to start thinking about running back in around noon or 1pm.
****I WOULD WATCH THESE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS LIKE A HAWK UP TO THE LAST UPDATE. NOAA UPDATES THERE FORECAST DISCUSSION IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND MID MORNING (4pm and 4am ish).
I am including a screenshot of the hourly forecast from noaa. Also including a copy paste of the current forecast discussion.
The nose of the OH Valley ridge will nudge back into the area to end the week allowing temperatures to rebound some and afternoon PoPs to lower back toward climatology (20-50%) on Thursday and Friday. The main concern if skies remain clear enough would be heat indices approaching 108 degrees which would elevated the risk for heat- related illnesses. By Saturday, the ridge will begin to weaken and move eastward allowing a weakness in mid-level flow and lowering of heights over the area. This could locally enhance afternoon PoPs once more over the weekend with more scattered to numerous storms on Sunday especially as a reinforcing weak shortwave moves down across the lower Mississippi Valley. Looking ahead, the longwave pattern within the global ensemble guidance continues to suggest the potential for a larger mid-upper ridge setting up over the west-central CONUS and favoring troughing and west-northwest flow aloft across the southeastern CONUS headed into next week which could bring temperatures down and potentially bring more convective activity into the area by midweek next week.
.MARINE... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Aside from a weak easterly wave moving through the northern Gulf overnight tonight, the pattern will be dominated by high pressure influences. Winds will generally be 10kts or less and direction will vary through midweek, becoming more predominantly southerly as high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf late in the week. Generally isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected each day, with potential for more numerous/widespread convection on Wednesday associated with the easterly wave. A few stronger storms could produce gusty winds and/or waterspouts, and locally hazardous seas during the second half of the work week.
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I also found another USGS tide gauge right where caernarvon (spelling?) dumps into lake lery. This will give you very very very accurate tide data for the lake.
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I think I am the one who misread the graph. I thought I saw the 800cfm and it was 8000cfm. SO it is at nearly min discharge. Still min discharge of 1000cf sec isnt nothing and it doesnt take much to stir up the water down there.
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Well I am not talking drastically south. Yes at some point you start running into mardi gras and neptune runoff, which is also very very muddy. In between there can be some very clean water, especially in those areas where the grass is super healthy.
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Cheap to tow it over to mississippi and launch there. Take your old lady to BSL for lunch after. She will like that.
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I find the noaa maps arent as detailed. I always do a ton of buoy checking leading up to the trip. I check all the buoys in the region and that kinda gives you an idea of what its going to be salt wise. Most of the USGS buoys atleast have salinity data.
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Im not fluent in meteorology. Well I wasn’t. I made it a habit of reading the forecast discussion every day about 10 or 15 years ago. At first I was confused and I would have to look up the terms they used, but after you read them for a few weeks and compare to whats actually happening with the weather then you start to see how they do it and what it all means for the big picture. Its free information. Also every TV forecaster on the planet is pulling their information from noaa, so you are going right to the root of the source.
