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While those blog posts I wrote in 2018/2019 are good, we now have the gift of hindsight. That and I appreciate you stimulating discussion here and elevating this forum above the typical smooth-brain thought garbage typically found in social media.
“– WHAT impact will that have on fishing?”
It will change where fish are located. The most key thing the opening of the spillway will do is automatically take water off your “to fish” list. If something is covered in river water, chances are it’s not worth your time. Congrats, now yo don’t have to fish it.
The short term impact is that it will move fish, most likely concentrate them and make them easier to find/catch. The long term impact is that the lake will get building blocks that build the food chain from the bottom up.
What a lot of people don’t know is that the Bonnet Carre Spillway is designed to leak through the pins every couple years, based off how the Mississippi River trends. So river water makes it into the lake every couple years anyway. But the majority of people holding a fishing license don’t know that. They only seem to notice when the news (i.e. non-fishers) tell them. Stop and think about that.
Now, I’m not on social media and seeing what people are saying, which is fine because most people don’t have as much experience or have studied as much as I have. Repetitive thought-garbage isn’t valuable. But I can imagine what they’re saying is more or less similar to what they’ve said in the past: something missing key information and all-important context.
For example, this opening (if USACE does open it, I don’t know) cannot possibly match the scale of 2018-2020 because there is not that much water to do it. The river is coming up then going back down, at least at the time of this writing.
“-WHERE will it impact fishing?”
Mostly the west side of the lake flowing east to the passes. There will be pockets of “clean” water that will concentrate fish. Some of these pockets will not be discernable on imagery. The only need to be 50 yards wide to yield a 100 trout trip.
“– WHY will it impact fishing?”
Trout don’t enjoy dirty water for similar reasons as to why we don’t enjoy thick smoke: it’s hard to see and breathe. That and they’re on their way to saltier water right now, so the river water will expedite their migration.
Plot twist: that entire side of the lake isn’t salty enough anyway, so trout leave anyway. Slot reds will remain, as they do anyway. Redfish do great in straight fresh water. Anyone telling you otherwise is wrong.
I mentioned the key already: the river water will show you where not to go. It really is that easy. Openings in the past have produced excellent trout fishing in the short and long term.
Normies claim that there’s a negative short term impact on their fishing. They are not wrong, they’re just not accurate: the way they fished before the conditions changed no longer works. Rather than adapt, they will whine. I have a glass to collect their tears and enjoy the subsequent hydration.
The spillway opening that you’re talking about is not abnormal, it’s normal. Business as usual, folks. Nothing to see here. What’s abnormal is the ten year flood that was The Freshening. Big difference on a continental scale. But most people don’t realize that because they have a short memory, they don’t read, they don’t write things down, they don’t study, don’t realize what they don’t know that they do not know and are otherwise willfully stupid.
The monkey wrench in all this is that fish may get in the dirty stuff anyway. They’ll do it because they’ll put up with it in the short term to meet their needs. Sometimes that’s where all the bait is. The spillway will dump a bunch of bait like gizzard shad in the lake and trout eat them. But dummies here in Louisiana think they’re menhaden. They’re not. This is important because they behave very differently from menhaden, most notably in the way/when/where they spawn. That impacts where trout feed.
Remember that bait trout like to eat are found eating phytoplankton that grows in areas that get sunlight and river water. Look at AIS and see where all the pogey boats are: river water.
So, to address this monkey wrench, I leave you with the following meme.
